This project uses Bayesian Network to model impact pathways for interventions. Two interventions, on fruit trees in Kenya and on agricultural policy in Uganda, are evaluated as to their impact on human nutrition. Models are produced during participatory workshops and refined through iterations of modification and feedback. The project will produce a refined methodology, to be described in detail in a methods guide. This is a key activity for CoA5.2, because it explores the use of a new modeling approach, which appears to be a good fit for ex-ante impact assessment, but has not yet been used in development research.
Contact PersonEike Luedeling (ICRAF)
Blog Post Blog Post Blog Post
Agrobiodiversity and nutrition in traditional cropping systems - Homegardens of the indigenous Bakiga and Banyakole in southwestern Uganda.Whitney, C. W. 2018. Agrobiodiversity and nutrition in traditional cropping systems -Homegardens of the indigenous Bakiga and Banyakole in southwestern Uganda.
- Working Paper
Probabilistic decision modelling to determine impacts on natural resource management and livelihood resilience in Marsabit County, Kenya.Tamba, Y.; Muchiri, C.; Luedeling, E.; Shepherd, K. 2018. Probabilistic decision modelling to determine impacts on natural resource management and livelihood resilience in Marsabit County, Kenya. ICRAF Working Paper No 281. Nairobi, World Agroforestry Centre. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5716/WP18008.PDF
- Journal Article
Long-term electricity demand forecast and supply side scenarios for Pakistan (2015–2050): A LEAP model application for policy analysisMirjat, N. H.; Uqaili, M. A.; Harijan , K.; Walasai, G. D.; Mondal, M. A. H.; Sahin, H. 2018. Long-term electricity demand forecast and supply side scenarios for Pakistan (2015–2050): A LEAP model application for policy analysis. Energy. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.012
- Journal ArticleBoyd, R.; Richerson, P. J.; Meinzen-Dick, R.; De Moor, T.; Jackson, M. O.; Gjerde, K. M.; Harden-Davies, H.; Frischmann, B. M.; Madison, M. J.; Strandburg, K. J.; McLean, A. R.; Dye, C. 2018. Tragedy revisited. Science. 362:(6420)1236-1241 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw0911
- Book ChapterZhang, W.; Gowdy, J.; Bassi, A.M.; Santamaria, M.; DeClerck, F. (2018) Systems thinking: an approach for understanding ‘eco-agri-food systems’. In: TEEB for Agriculture & Food: Scientific and Economic Foundations. Geneva (Switzerland): UN Environment. p. 24-25. ISBN: 978-92-807-3702-8